Evidence of Absence

Suppose you think you’re 80% likely to have left your laptop power adapter somewhere inside a case with 4 otherwise-identical compartments. You check 3 compartments without finding your adapter. What’s the probability that the adapter is inside the remaining compartment?

Corona Tests and the Bayes Factor

A medical test does not give you the probability that you have a certain disease (such as Corona). Instead, it is evidence, which moves the odds of you having the disease up or down. I wrote a little app that helps you calculate how these odds change.

Seven Scientists

Seven scientists (A, B, C, D, E, F, G) with widely-differing experimental skills measure a quantity m. You expect some of them to do accurate work, and some of them to turn in wildly inaccurate answers. What is m and how reliable is each scientist?

Do all Snickers bars taste the same?

Last year, I noticed that Snickers bars seem to taste different in different countries, but I was not sure. So my partner Nellissa and I conducted a little experiment that involved a lot of chocolate and a little Bayesian statistics. We wanted to establish whether Snickers bars from different countries taste different or not. To […]