Suppose you think you’re 80% likely to have left your laptop power adapter somewhere inside a case with 4 otherwise-identical compartments. You check 3 compartments without finding your adapter. What’s the probability that the adapter is inside the remaining compartment?
A medical test does not give you the probability that you have a certain disease (such as Corona). Instead, it is evidence, which moves the odds of you having the disease up or down. I wrote a little app that helps you calculate how these odds change.
Just a note for reference, because I find myself explaining this repeatedly.
Seven scientists (A, B, C, D, E, F, G) with widely-differing experimental skills measure a quantity m. You expect some of them to do accurate work, and some of them to turn in wildly inaccurate answers. What is m and how reliable is each scientist?
Buzzwords like artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), big data, and neural networks appear everywhere around us, but if you are not involved in the field, you may misunderstand them. Thus, here is a short overview on what these words mean, how the associated technologies can affect you personally, and what you can do to […]
Recently, I discovered this neat little algorithm called “self-organizing maps” that can be used to create a low-dimensional “map” (as in cartography) of high-dimensional data. The algorithm is very simple. Say you have a set of high-dimensional vectors and you want to represent them in an image, such that each vector is associated with a […]
Last year, I noticed that Snickers bars seem to taste different in different countries, but I was not sure. So my partner Nellissa and I conducted a little experiment that involved a lot of chocolate and a little Bayesian statistics. We wanted to establish whether Snickers bars from different countries taste different or not. To […]